Mexico’s 2020/21 orange crop is forecast to partially rebound after drought reduced last year’s crop by almost 40%, according to USDA data. While orange consumption is projected higher than last season’s level, it should remain below average levels due to the ongoing effects of COVID-19 sanitary measures that have affected the food service and hospitality channels. As a result, a greater proportion of fruit is expected to be sent to the processing industry. Residual soil health effects and low producer investments in orchard rehabilitation will prohibit full production recovery. Lack of government support for drought recovery, production inputs, and pest mitigation is likely to prevent significant sector growth in the coming years.
Exports in 2020/21 are forecast at 61,000 tons due to strong US demand for fresh consumption. Most oranges shipped to the US are Navel grown in Sonora, as the state is free of fruit fly. Imports are estimated at 30,000 tons, exclusively from the US, primarily for fresh consumption at the border region.