The global 2019/20 grape crop is projected to grow 4% to 23.4 million tons, thanks to rebounding China supplies, according to USDA/FAS data. However, exports are expected to shrink slightly as lower shipments from India and the US more than offset gains from China and Mexico. China’s output is predicted to climb 9% to 10.8 million tons, as vineyards recover from last year’s severe frost. Rebounding supplies are expected to drive exports to a record 360,000 tons, as higher shipments to the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Vietnam facilitate China’s continuing upward trend. Imports are estimated to drop 7% to 235,000 tons on reduced shipments from top suppliers Chile, Peru, and the US. Small shipments from the EU have started to arrive following the recent market access for Spanish and Portuguese grapes. Nevertheless, the US remains China’s top Northern Hemisphere supplier.
EU production is expected to drop 14% to 1.4 million tons due to damaging rains during flowering in Italy. Exports are expected to remain flat at 75,000 tons. Despite lower supplies, imports are estimated to shrink slightly to 675,000 tons as reduced shipments from India, Peru, and Brazil more than offset gains from Egypt and Turkey. Reduced output is anticipated to drive consumption to its lowest level since 2001/02.