Consumption is expected to be lower with the reduced supplies. Exports are also forecast down with a near 50-percent decline in exports from Morocco due to the drop in production.
China production is estimated down 2 percent to 26.5 million tons due to lower yields. Consumption is down with the decrease in production while exports are flat. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to remain the top export markets.
EU production is forecast down 5 percent to 3.0 million tons as higher production in Greece due to favourable conditions during fruit set is not enough to offset lower production in Spain due to unfavourable warm temperatures during the summer. Consumption is forecast lower after peaking in 2020/21 and 2021/22 when health-conscious consumers sought natural sources of vitamin C. Imports are projected down with an expected return to normal consumption levels while exports are expected down with reduced supplies. Morocco and South Africa are anticipated to remain the leading suppliers.
Turkey’s production is estimated to fall 330,000 tons to 1.5 million as a freeze affected the bloom. While exports are projected flat, consumption is down due to the decreased supplies.
Morocco’s production is forecast to shrink 34 percent to 900,000 tons due to heat stress, water scarcity, and increased input costs. Consumption and exports are projected to fall with the reduced production. The European Union, Russia, and the United States are expected to remain the top export markets.