In light of the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia, SHAFFE forecasts increasingly difficult conditions to maintain fruit supplies to both markets. In 2020, Ukraine imported $795 million of fresh fruit with more than 48% coming from suppliers such as Turkey (citrus), Ecuador and Costa Rica (bananas and pineapples). Total fresh fruit exports from SHAFFE member countries reached US$54 million in 2020, accounting for 7% of the total fruit import market in Ukraine. Ukraine’s main suppliers from SHAFFE member countries included South Africa, which mainly exported citrus worth US$16 million and accounted for 30% of the total value of exports recorded by SHAFFE member countries in 2020.
In 2020, SHAFFE member countries’ fresh fruit exports to Russia reached 643,084 tons, which represented 17% of the total import market for fresh products. During the same period, the main fruit species exported by SHAFFE member countries to Russia included apples, pears and citrus, which together accounted for 80% of SHAFFE member countries’ total exports to this market. Exports of fresh products from SHAFFE member countries have had an upward trend, registering a volume growth of 29%, between 2017 and 2020. South Africa and Argentina are the main suppliers of fresh products to Russia and represent 69 % of the total volume exported by SHAFFE member countries in 2020.
According to SHAFFE, the foreseeable negative impacts could include the reduction of exports to the Russian and Ukrainian market and, therefore, the redirection and excess supply of citrus fruits, apples and pears to other destinations such as the EU, the USA or others. This could lead to oversupply from those markets with consequent financial losses for exporters. In addition, the entity anticipates that this situation could further aggravate the negative impact of the current increase in production and logistics costs faced by exporters and producers in the southern hemisphere. The sanctions of some Western countries against Russian banks, as well as SWIFT payments, will increase the risks that exporters will have to face. The situation is expected to be resolved soon.