The Center for Research on Global Economy and Business of the Association of Exporters CIEN-ADEX estimated that Peruvian agricultural shipments (traditional and non-traditional) will exceed US$10.1bn in 2023 in a pessimistic scenario or US$10.4 in a positive scenario, but it will depend on external and internal factors.
At the meeting of the ADEX Agribusiness, Food and Beverage Committee, the director of CIEN-ADEX, Edgar Vásquez Vela, indicated that the performance of the sector, which could grow between 2% and 5%, will be particularly affected by the internal crisis in the country and the economic behaviour of the main trading partners.
“It will also depend on the improvement of the conditions of the productive sector and the unlocking of vital investments for the agribusiness, the international price of the leading exported products and the access to useful fertilisers to ensure national production,” he explained.
Along these lines, he mentioned other factors, such as the possible slowdown in GDP and global trade. “Peruvian economic growth will slow down in 2023, and this rate is not only influenced by external risks, but also by internal ones such as social conflicts, political instability, deteriorating expectations, corruption, and others,” he added.
However, he maintained his optimism because agricultural exports, although they did not reach US$10 billion in 2022, totalled more than US$9.88bn, an increase of 12.6% compared to 2021.
Agro-industrial agricultural exports were the most important sector in terms of added value within non-traditional exports. Blueberries was the number-1 item (US$1.37bn). Blueberries (+15.2%), grapes (+8.9%) and avocados (-11.7%) together accounted for 42.5% of all non-traditional agricultural exports.
The main export markets were the United States (US$3.1bn), accounting for 36.3% of the total, followed by the Netherlands, Spain, Ecuador, China, Chile, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Hong Kong and Colombia.