EU avocado prices to lower over the long-term
The world’s production of Hass avocado is estimated to grow on average by around 230,000 tons per year over the next five years, an increase of 14%. The US and the EU markets currently receive about 90% of global avocado imports, with imports increasing on average by 85,000 and 70,000 tons a year respectively over the last five years. Despite growing demand, the Asian avocado market still relatively small, with China and Hong Kong together importing 53,000 tons in 2017.
After climbing steadily for several years, avocado prices in the EU dropped in 2018. The dramatic fall in the summer was mainly due to the increased supply from Peru, where exports have tripled. And the EU avocado market looks set to change for good, with established producers like Mexico and South Africa increasing output, joined by new producers like Kenya, Colombia, Brazil and Morocco. Avocado supply to the EU will continue to grow and result in mismatches similar to those witnessed last summer.
There is still plenty of room for Europe’s avocado market to expand further. In 2018, the EU’s avocado supply reached 636,000 tons. Per capita consumption is 1.2 kg per year. If consumption across the region rises to the level of the Nordic countries (just over 2 kg), the market could reach over 1 million tons. Particularly in southern Europe, Eastern Europe and Germany, avocado consumption is still rather low.